Report Compiled: 2020-05-18

Johns Hopkins Repo Commit: b6c4cf1 Max Data Date: 2020-05-17

NYT Repo Commit: 60822db Max Data Date: 2020-05-17

This is an automatically generated report containing analyses of the COVID-19 epidemic in Iowa and elsewhere. All models under consideration here are stochastic SEIR compartmental models, fit using Approximate Bayesian Computation using the ABSEIR software for R. Source code available upon request. Questions should be directed to grant-brown@uiowa.edu

There are two general classes of model:

  1. Models which use a single location of mortality data to estimate the epidemic curves
  2. Models which are used to provide informative prior information about the epidemic in Iowa, based on analyses of other locations.

In both cases, we have to make assumptions about the shape of the underlying contact distributions. Namely, can we assume that contact in each location shifted within one week of governmental action, or is the shape of the curve more complex. With that in mind, we look at both types of models. In addition, for the State of Iowa, we consider whether or not it is most reasonable to assume that intervention efforts began on 3-17-2020 or 4-4-2020, which correspond to the emergency declaration and the official closing of schools.

** A huge array of models are presented in this document, and they are not reviewed by our team of experts before posting to this page. Some of these are guaranteed to be inadequate or misleading if interpreted by themselves. These results should be considered raw material for follow-up reporting, investigation, and decision-making.**

R0 Summaries: Single Location Analyses

Mortality Estimates: Single Location Analyses

Here, we present the compared results of analyses of the COVID-19 outbreak in a number of locations. We begin by comparing the estimated posterior distribution of mortality rates in each location.

Model Fit: Single Location Analyses

In the following tabbed sections, we present diverse output from the single location models, including projections over time of the following important quantities:

Illinois

Washington

Minnesota

Iowa (3-17)

Iowa (4-4)

Illinois (Spline Model)

Washington (Spline Model)

Minnesota (Spline Model)

Iowa (3-17, Spline Model)

Iowa (4-4, Spline Model)

Iowa Specific Projections

In the following sections, we apply the estimated intervention intensity from the previous analyses to the situation in Iowa, with the hope that by borrowing information from other locations we can improve the precision of our projections.

Iowa Analysis Based on: Illinois - Intervention Term Applied 2020-03-17

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Illinois - Intervention Term Applied 2020-04-4

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Washington - Intervention Term Applied 2020-03-17

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Washington - Intervention Term Applied 2020-04-4

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Minnesota - Intervention Term Applied 2020-03-17

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Minnesota - Intervention Term Applied 2020-04-4

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Illinois - Intervention Term Applied 2020-03-17

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Illinois - Intervention Term Applied 2020-04-4

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Washington - Intervention Term Applied 2020-03-17

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Washington - Intervention Term Applied 2020-04-4

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Minnesota - Intervention Term Applied 2020-03-17

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Minnesota - Intervention Term Applied 2020-04-4

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Table of projected mortality by model/assumption

Mortality As Of: Training Location Intervention Date Model Type 10th Percentile 50th Percentile 90th Percentile
2020-06-28 Illinois 04-04-2020 Shift 742.2369 1035.4049 1494.0467
2020-06-28 Illinois 04-04-2020 Spline 652.8093 888.8336 1398.9478
2020-06-28 Illinois 03-17-2020 Shift 1059.4226 1495.2583 2330.4531
2020-06-28 Illinois 03-17-2020 Spline 791.5635 1220.2265 2247.9471
2020-06-28 Iowa 04-04-2020 Shift 606.7310 1042.1620 1814.9392
2020-06-28 Iowa 04-04-2020 Spline 603.3689 1172.3789 3145.8816
2020-06-28 Iowa 03-17-2020 Shift 1040.1060 1818.7302 2861.0357
2020-06-28 Iowa 03-17-2020 Spline 662.7065 1207.4429 3218.5925
2020-06-28 Minnesota 04-04-2020 Shift 586.4793 834.4714 1277.7633
2020-06-28 Minnesota 04-04-2020 Spline 525.4135 724.7305 1584.4758
2020-06-28 Minnesota 03-17-2020 Shift 1016.4163 1527.4443 2318.0248
2020-06-28 Minnesota 03-17-2020 Spline 759.6876 1480.3289 4530.6983
2020-06-28 Washington 04-04-2020 Shift 598.4509 790.8932 1252.9102
2020-06-28 Washington 04-04-2020 Spline 533.9206 757.2440 1168.3500
2020-06-28 Washington 03-17-2020 Shift 1038.4467 1447.0210 2211.9931
2020-06-28 Washington 03-17-2020 Spline 674.6404 1189.8302 4190.0686
2020-06-01 Iowa 04-04-2020 Shift 415.3317 524.3476 644.9602
2020-06-01 Iowa 04-04-2020 Spline 408.0440 544.2878 691.6642
2020-06-01 Iowa 03-17-2020 Shift 491.7882 598.0098 742.5864
2020-06-01 Iowa 03-17-2020 Spline 420.8451 559.0530 716.7783